Weekly Market and Macro Outlook

Week ended of July 11, 2025

Macro Update and Market Performance

U.S. equity markets pulled back modestly in the week ending July 11, cooling off after two strong weeks that pushed major indices to record levels. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, while the NASDAQ dipped 0.1%, ending a rally that had added more than 5% over the prior fortnight. The Dow saw the sharpest pullback, slipping 1.0%, as rotation into defensive and energy names failed to overcome broader profit-taking.

Tariff uncertainty continues to cast a shadow. The Trump administration delayed the July 9 implementation of broad-based tariff hikes, granting a temporary extension to August 1 while it continues negotiations with Canada, Brazil, and others. At the same time, it escalated trade tension by announcing a 50% tariff on copper imports, triggering a surge in metals markets. Copper jumped 13% to a record high, and silver gained 6%, reaching its highest level since 2011.

Bitcoin also powered higher, up 9% on the week, closing above $118,000 for the first time. Just weeks ago, the crypto asset had traded below $100,000. The sharp rebound mirrors the metal market’s sensitivity to inflation and global trade anxiety. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields were whipsawed by dovish Fed minutes on Wednesday, followed by Friday’s tariff escalation. The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.42%, up from 4.35% a week prior, as markets reassessed the risk of delayed rate cuts.

The S&P 500 sector breakdown showed divergence under the surface. Energy led with a 2.5% gain amid higher oil prices, while industrials and utilities also advanced. Financials and consumer staples lagged, each down nearly 2%. Growth stocks slightly outperformed value in large caps, though small and mid-cap names broadly underperformed.

Astrological Framework: Mid-July 2025 Overview

The market enters the week with the Sun at 23° Cancer, bringing emphasis to security, foundations, and domestic economic policy. Cancer’s focus on protection aligns with tariff escalation and industrial policy moves aimed at economic self-defense. Jupiter, now at 8° Cancer, expands this energy — suggesting continued emphasis on fiscal protectionism and possibly further stimulus or subsidy discussion.

Mercury sits at 15° Leo, pushing bold messaging and aggressive market narratives. Expect confident rhetoric from corporate earnings calls, particularly from banks kicking off Q2 results. Leo Mercury often translates to overstated forecasts, setting up potential market misalignment if actual results fail to impress.

The Moon begins the week in late Pisces, drifting into Aries midweek, culminating in a confrontational tone. As CPI data is released Tuesday, the Moon’s ingress into Aries will activate a fire trine with Mercury, increasing the likelihood of sharp market reactions to inflation data — especially if numbers deviate from expectations. June CPI will serve as a key test of whether May’s 2.4% annual inflation rate is holding steady amid escalating import costs.

Mars, at 16° Virgo, maintains a disciplined, surgical focus. This placement correlates to precision in manufacturing and regulation. Coupled with Uranus at 0° Gemini, innovation in logistics, semiconductor processing, and AI infrastructure may reemerge as market themes, especially with tariff-exposed sectors looking to localize supply chains.

Saturn and Neptune in early Aries continue their slow-motion transformation of global strategy and ideology. Saturn retrograde at 1° Aries signals retrenchment in international institutions and hesitation in global capital flow. With Venus at 11° Gemini and Uranus co-present in the sign, expect volatility in communications, fintech, and media sectors.

Pluto remains retrograde at 2° Aquarius, hovering over themes of systemic reinvention. Watch for intensified discussions about decentralization — from crypto to AI governance — as Pluto continues reshaping long-term macro structure.

U.S. Economic Indicators and Outlook

Markets will have a packed macroeconomic schedule starting Tuesday with the CPI. Given the backdrop of tariff-induced cost pressures, this data could surprise. A hotter-than-expected CPI could challenge current rate-cut assumptions priced into bond markets, despite dovish Fed minutes. The Producer Price Index follows Wednesday, alongside housing market sentiment and industrial production. Thursday delivers the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading, export/import prices, and jobless claims. Retail sales on Friday will provide insight into household resilience amid persistent price and policy pressures.

The recent deceleration in dividend growth also signals caution. Net dividend increases slowed to $7.4 billion in Q2 from $15.3 billion in Q1. Companies may be bracing for higher input costs and regulatory uncertainty as the tariff cycle evolves. Earnings from banks and industrials could reveal more about corporate cash flow expectations going into Q3.

International and Sector Dynamics

Developed markets outside the U.S. were mixed. European equities were strong, with Germany and Italy gaining over 1% on the week and Spain holding its 44% YTD surge. Japan, in contrast, declined 2.4%, weighed by a strengthening yen and tepid domestic demand.

Emerging markets were more volatile. Brazil plunged 6.3% on trade worries, while Indonesia and Korea surged more than 2%. Currency movements played a major role, with the Japanese yen and British pound losing ground against the U.S. dollar, down 1.9% and 1.0% respectively.

From an asset flow standpoint, U.S. equity funds saw $18 billion in monthly outflows through May, while taxable bond funds saw $52 billion in inflows. Core bond strategies, long government, and high-yield bonds led Morningstar’s fund category rankings by inflows. Alternatives and digital assets also saw continued interest, reflecting a search for diversification amid rising uncertainty.

Outlook

The week ahead will test the market’s confidence in a soft-landing narrative. With Mercury in Leo fueling strong communication and CPI potentially stirring inflation fears, volatility is likely. The backdrop of trade disputes, a slowing dividend cycle, and surging commodity prices suggests deeper tensions are at play. Investors should remain alert to shifts in inflation expectations, rate cut odds, and sector leadership.

From an astrological lens, the dominant Cancer-Capricorn polarity this week emphasizes structural security and governance. The Aries Moon midweek will act as an accelerant to market responses, especially to CPI and earnings data. As Mars in Virgo seeks control and precision, investors may favor defensiveness and high-quality balance sheets over speculative growth until clarity returns.

Stay nimble. The market tone is shifting.