Leo's Rally: Market Fire Meets Virgo Precision

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP Week Ended July 25, 2025

MARKET OVERVIEW

U.S. equity markets ended the week firmly in the green, extending a powerful summer rally that has seen the S&P 500 and NASDAQ composite notch multiple all-time highs. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 1.5%, the NASDAQ rose 1.0%, and the Dow gained 1.3%, narrowly missing its own record close set in December 2024. Momentum was underpinned by investor confidence in the earnings strength of the Magnificent 7 mega-cap stocks and receding volatility expectations, as measured by the VIX, which dropped to a five-month low of 14.9.

Since June 20, the S&P has gained over 7%, and the NASDAQ has surged nearly 9%. This performance sets the stage for a critical week ahead as investors look to second-quarter GDP results, a Fed policy decision, and July’s employment data to validate these bullish bets

EARNINGS SEASON: TECH HEAVYWEIGHTS CARRY THE LOAD

As second-quarter earnings season intensifies, the so-called Magnificent 7 — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia — are once again commanding disproportionate influence. Together, they are expected to report 14.1% earnings growth, significantly outpacing the rest of the S&P 500, which is projected to manage just 3.4% growth.

The market’s reliance on these names introduces concentrated risk, but it also underscores the structural transformation of the equity landscape where tech continues to drive index-level returns.

MACRO SNAPSHOT: GDP, INFLATION, JOBS AHEAD

The macroeconomic calendar in the upcoming week is dense. Wednesday’s release of the Q2 GDP estimate is highly anticipated following a contraction of 0.5% in Q1. Economists are split, but the consensus leans toward a moderate rebound, largely supported by consumer spending and easing supply chain frictions. The Federal Reserve will also convene midweek. While no rate change is expected, investors will be listening closely to Chair Powell’s comments for guidance on future policy bias.

Friday’s jobs report will round out the week. With June having posted a better-than-expected 147,000 job gain, July’s print will be a key signal of labor market resilience amid a high-rate backdrop.

MARKET SIGNALS AND SECTOR LEADERSHIP